Alaksandar Łukašenka is set to revert to his traditional methods of coercion to address staff shortages at health establishments. During his working trip to the Minsk district on October 27, he also spoke about the Middle East crisis, price controls and indicated his readiness for horse trading with EU neighbors.
Łukašenka wants order in education and health care
On October 27, Łukašenka vowed to address a shortage of healthcare workers. “Yes, we have a shortage of doctors. Some doctors have left the profession and are doing nobody knows what,” he said.
He did not specify the options he had, but said that “the education system in Belarus has recently been reset in a similar way.”
That was an apparent reference to the education minister’s recent proposal to introduce mandatory job placement for students who have paid for their studies, and extend the mandatory job assignment period for budget-financed students from two to five years.
The idea has been criticized as “serfdom,” and that discontent prompted officials to reassure students and their parents that the new rule would not apply to the current fee-paying students.
The graduates of tuition-paying departments will be assigned jobs only in five years, and so the announced amendments will not immediately alleviate staff shortages, including at health facilities.
Extent of medical staff shortages
Łukašenka expressed concern about medical staff shortages before. In May he said, “We seem to be training enough doctors and nurses, but even employer-sponsored students don’t stay in small towns. They look for jobs in the capital or, even worse, abroad.”
In May, there were about 5,000 vacancies for doctors and more than 4,000 vacancies for nurses. Similar numbers were reported five months later. Belarusians, including doctors, leave the country for safety reasons as the political crackdown continues unabated.
Łukašenka made it clear that he may take away the diplomas from doctors and nurses who go abroad or are driven out of profession.
The public concern with the government’s attempt to introduce compulsory job placement for fee-paying medical students seems to have reached official ears. Perhaps this is the reason the government has postponed amendments to the Education Code and does not rush changes through the legislature to extend compulsory job placement to at least five years.
The bill will be passed sooner or later; it was recently approved by the Council of the Republic, the upper house of the Belarusian National Assembly. In addition, the government intends to significantly increase fines for graduates’ refusal to take up assigned jobs – in health care, to up to 60,000 rubels (around €17,300).
All these measures are unlikely to stop the outflow of skilled workers, but the plan to invalidate diplomas, if put into practice, might affect Belarusian emigrants.
On the other hand, foreigners are required to have their skills certified in EU countries anyway, so diploma annulment might not make much difference.
The Belarusian government resorts to prohibitive and punitive methods out of vengeance, having long forgotten how to create attractive conditions and incentives.
Remarks on international developments
On October 27, Łukašenka finally commented on the war in the Middle East. As usual, he blamed the United States.
He also spoke about the plight of migrants traveling through Belarus to the EU, the recent parliamentary election in Poland and the war in Ukraine. He said that he was ready to “extend his hand” to the neighboring EU countries if they ease sanctions. The Belarusian ruler accused the United States of “strangling Europe” and “stirring up chaos” not only in the Gaza Strip, but also in the former Soviet Union, Africa and Taiwan.
Although Łukašenka did not say anything particularly new on foreign policy, he sent a signal to the West that he is ready for horse trading. “We are waiting for proposals,” he said, referring in particular to Poland, where a new government will be formed soon after the parliamentary election.
It has probably become so difficult and expensive to evade the sanctions that Minsk is looking for a compromise. Łukašenka’s overtures might also be an attempt to force the Kremlin to pay more attention to its “little brother.” After all, Vladimir Putin did not have time for a face-to-face meeting with him at the recent Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Bishkek.
Price controls – “milking” businesses and manufacturers
While announcing an upcoming government conference on price controls, Łukašenka proposed looting the rich for the benefit of the poor.
“It turns out that they have accumulated so much fat, especially the retail chains, and also the manufacturers, that there is plenty of reasons to trim it,” the ruler said.
The government has been milking the bourgeoisie for more than a year since October 6, 2022, when Łukašenka signed Directive No. 10 prohibiting retailers from raising prices without permission from local authorities.
The strategy is simple – to force businesses and manufacturers to sell products at low prices under the threat of criminal prosecution and make them cover their losses from savings.
The strategy has helped slow down inflation and prevent goods shortages, but the government cannot “milk” manufacturers and retailers in this way forever.
Łukašenka said he was angry with price hikes. He said he had questioned First Deputy Prime Minister Mikałaj Snapkoŭ, whose team is responsible for price controls, and forced him to confess, presumably under the burden of evidence, that “there is still some fat to be trimmed from our manufacturers and retailers.”
The remark suggests that Belarus’ business climate is unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future. The surpluses will probably be expropriated at least until the parliamentary and local elections in February 2024, and only later the government might take some market-oriented measures.
Meanwhile, the economy ministry has warned of possible price hikes in the near future, and Łukašenka noted on October 27 that “maybe inflation will rise a little bit by the new year, but it won’t be 9 percent.”
Experts of the Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center also predict inflation acceleration later this year.