Belarus’ trade deficit has reached over $1 billion from January to September 2024, driven by a significant rise in imports, which outpaced the growth in exports. Imports from the EU also increased as companies sought to take advantage of final opportunities before sanctions tightened.
Imports outpace Exports
Exports increased by 3.3 percent year-on-year, reaching $30.3 billion, while imports rose by 7.3percent to $33.6 billion during the first nine months of the year, according to the National Statistics Committee (Biełstat).
While officials highlight trade growth, they avoid emphasizing that it is driven by imports. In September alone, goods exports dropped by 5 percent to $3.4 billion, while imports surged by 25 percent to $4.3 billion. As a result, the one-month deficit amounted to $977 million.
The Belarusian economy is becoming more reliant on imports, while exports are declining—despite optimistic claims from officials.
CIS exports up, other markets down
In September, Belarus’ exports of goods to Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries rose by 17percent year-on-year to $2.6 billion, while imports increased by 7 percent to $2.2 billion.
However, this export growth is almost entirely driven by Russia, a key transit point for goods to other CIS nations. The heavy interdependence with Russia makes Belarus vulnerable to economic volatility in the region.
Outside the CIS, exports plummeted by 42 percent to $0.7 billion, while imports surged by 51 percent to $2.2 billion, setting a new record for 2024. The sharp decline in exports, combined with rising imports, has created a significant deficit—resembling a “perfect storm” of negative factors that are exacerbating the country’s economic challenges.
Purchases may be related to sanctions
September’s surge may be an isolated event in the context of annual foreign trade. One possible explanation is that businesses were stockpiling goods ahead of upcoming import restrictions that were set to take effect in October.
Imports from the EU rose by €59.5 million in September to €620.7 million. While Germany reduced exports, other countries increased their shipments to Belarus. In September, Poland raised its exports to Belarus by 38 percent to €65.5 million, the Czech Republic by 27 percent to €5.1 million, Lithuania by 3 percent to €3.5 million, and Latvia by 10 percent to €1.3 million.
Despite September’s rise, imports could decrease in the coming months, though challenges will persist. The sanctions, limited sales and rising imports suggest that Belarusian businesses are adapting, but it remains uncertain whether the economy can withstand further shocks.
China’s growing influence
China is Belarus’ leading non-CIS trading partner, with imports from China rising to $622.9 million in September from $530.5 million in August.
China has significantly increased its market share in Belarus, particularly in the equipment sector, as it substitutes Western manufacturers. Due to sanctions, China’s dominant position allows it to sell goods—some of which are outdated or of lower quality—at higher prices, further straining Belarus’ economy.
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