In the run-up to the presidential election, officials and propagandists claimed that Alaksandar Łukašenka had saved Belarus from a “systemic crisis.” However, under his 30-year rule, the population of Belarus decreased by more than 10 percent, a significant challenge for the government.
Belarus’ population: before and after Łukašenka
The population decline followed a period of growth in the early years of independence (1992-1993).
According to the 1989 census, 10,151,806 people lived in the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic. In the next three years, the population grew by 46,540 (+0.46 percent), reaching 10,198,346, with an average annual increase of 15,513.
Growth accelerated during the first two years of independence, with the population rising by 45,160 (+22,580 per year) to 10,243,506 on January 1, 1994.
However, over the three decades of Łukašenka’s rule, official figures show that the population fell by more than 10 percent or 1,087,528 people.
Belarusian scientist links demographic crisis to war and USSR collapse
Belarusian scientists attribute the demographic crisis to World War II and the collapse of the Soviet Union, rather than to Łukašenka’s policies.
Anastasija Babrova, head of the Center for Human Development and Demography at the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, stated in an interview with the pro-government STV channel: “We did a retrospective projection of how many Belarusians there would have been if there had been no war. Today, we would have counted 16-17 million. If the USSR had not collapsed, we’d probably be a nation of 30 million.”
Łukašenka alters population goals amid decline
Officials, including Łukašenka himself, have repeatedly said that Belarus should increase its population to at least 30 million. In a February 2008 interview with Russian journalists, he said:
“I see my country as a stable state, where 13 million people will live in 10 years, not 10 million, but we actually need 25-30 million for full independence and sovereignty.”
Despite this ambition, the population continued to decline, from 9,542,412 at the beginning of 2008 to 9,495,608 by early 2010, a decrease of 46,804.
In September 2010, Łukašenka, expressing concern about the trend, reiterated the importance of increasing the population to 30 million: “If we continue to fail at growing the population, we will fail as a state. Ten million people is insignificant for this vast territory.”
By early 2011, the population had dropped to 9,472,064, a decline of 23,544 for the year. In October 2011, speaking at the Eurasian Congress of Cardiologists, Łukašenka adjusted his goals: “We need at least 20 million, or preferably 30 million. We can feed so many people.”
Demographic goals shrink in Łukašenka’s last decade
By early 2018, the population had reached only 9.4 million (9,448,312), far from the 13 million Łukašenka had promised. Over the decade since his 2008 interview, the population had declined by 1 percent, instead of growing by 36 percent as he had envisioned.
In 2017, Łukašenka halved his population target, stating: “Our biggest challenge, which is not so much for us but for our children to address, is [to increase] the population to 15 million. Our nation’s economic security depends on it.”
By the early 2020s, the 15-million target was no longer a firm goal. In 2021, during a speech in Brahin, Homiel region, Łukašenka said: “We need 15 million people. Belarus can even feed 20 million. But for now, we have what we have, less than 10 million.”
Łukašenka fails to deliver on population growth promises
Population growth was a key focus of Łukašenka’s 2006 election platform, which included an entire section on the issue. In the 12 years leading up to that election, Belarus’ population had decreased by 613,152, dropping to 9,630,354.
Łukašenka promised to create conditions that would increase birth rates, stating: “Each family should have at least two or three children. There will be increased cash benefits for children, job security for mothers and upgrades to the baby food and clothing industries. The primary concern is the availability of affordable housing. By 2010, housing supply is projected to reach a minimum of 25 square meters per person. Young families will be given apartments within the first three years of marriage, and large families with five children will receive full housing subsidies from the state.”
However, by 2010, the population had decreased by 134,746, dropping to 9,495,608. In the 2010 election platform, Łukašenka scaled back his promises to just a few sentences:
“The goal is strengthening the nation—there should be more children. Families with four children will receive free housing at the expense of the state. Families with three children will be reimbursed 75 percent of the cost. Having many children will be prestigious.”
Despite these promises, the population continued to decline. In his subsequent election platforms, Łukašenka made no specific demographic promises. The 2015 platform included a general pledge to “improve all state programs to protect and support the elderly, the disabled, motherhood and childhood, and large families.”
In 2025, he promised to continue supporting mothers, children, the elderly and people with disabilities. However, demographic issues were not addressed in the 2020 platform, despite a small population growth of 27,215 people between 2013 and 2016 (an average of +6,804 per year).
Rural decline
The population decline varied by region and pace. The lowest rates of decline were observed in 2014-2019 (-0.16 percent) and 2009-2014 (-0.73 percent), while the highest rates occurred in 2019-2024 (-2.90 percent) and 1999-2004 (-2.81 percent). The last five years were marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and mass political emigration.
While the urban population grew by 3.92 percent from 6,927,057 in 1994 to 7,198,285 in 2024, the rural population plummeted by 40.97 percent, from 3,316,449 to 1,957,693. The share of rural residents fell from 32.38 percent to 21.38 percent. Many people migrated to the capital, where the share of Minsk residents in the total population increased from 16.26 percent to 21.77 percent.
Urbanization continued despite significant investments in rural areas. In his 2020 platform, Łukašenka declared: “The origins of modern Belarus lie in the rural way of life. Finding owners for thousands of abandoned properties is our historic duty.”
However, between 2021 and 2023, the rural population declined by 111,362, from 2,069,325 to 1,957,693.
Officials view people as resource
Belarusian officials emphasize the need for a higher population to ensure the country’s independence and security.
In 2023, Natalla Kačanava, chairwoman of the Council of the Republic, addressed women who gave birth on Independence Day, stressing that women’s primary task was to give birth to “our Belarusians,” emphasizing that children belong to the state.
Officials view people as a resource to be exploited. “People are the main resource of the state,” said Aleh Ramanaŭ, chairman of the pro-government Biełaja Ruś Party. The military sees people as “mobilization resources,” while the National Statistical Committee treats people as labor resources.
Invoking religion and other measures to boost birth rates
Belarusian officials have appealed to religion and even interfered in private lives to encourage higher birth rates.
In December 2023, officials discussed strengthening traditional family values at a meeting at the Homiel Regional Executive Committee. The state-controlled newspaper Homielskaja Praŭda reported that teachers, educational institutions, ideology workers, the Belarusian National Youth Union, pro-government political parties and the media should be involved in the effort.
The newspaper suggested that business leaders lead by example, promoting “traditional, healthy families” and denouncing the child-free lifestyle.
In March 2024, Kačanava said that the demographic situation would improve if Belarusians “learned to be spiritual and moral and live according to God’s commandments,” regardless of their religion. She made the statement at the Saint Elisabeth Convent in Minsk, which strongly supports Russia’s war against Ukraine. The convent’s policy, however, appears to contradict the fundamental Christian commandment: “Thou shalt not kill.”
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